Applied Probability Management

Simulation, Modelling and Probability Management

My craft is systems design and planning. My background is a mix of business, marketing and technology. My experience is helping clients turn objectives into achievements.

I've developed software in a variety of languages when it would help get the job done.

Depending on what you need, I'll consult, facilitate, or coach as your people do the work, or I'll do most of the work on your behalf.

My style is interactive – lots of intermediate results – no surprises.

Contact Marc Thibault

Probability Management:
Managing Uncertainty in Plans and Projections

If the plan and actual don't match, the plan was wrong.

Probability Management for projects is about planning and estimating and choosing realistic targets. It's about fixing the Flaw of Averages and inherent bad math that causes project estimating tools to give wrong answers. It's about giving projects the time and resources and odds they need to succeed.

A successful project starts with a crystal clear objective. It has well-described requirements, so that no one can possibly misunderstand what's to be achieved. But that's just a start.

There's a long dog-eared list of things that contribute to project failure. We know what they are and we know what to do about them. Project failure rates should be plummeting, and yet, failure rates have been constant for decades. There's one thing left to do – fix the math.

The calculations in conventional project planning tools suffer from The Flaw of Averages. The more complex the project, the more things are happening at once – the bigger the errors. And the errors are all one-sided; they consistently underestimate project cost and duration. Underestimating resources makes it more likely that a project will be approved and makes it more likely that it will fail. That's a double-whammy that results in too many failed projects.

Probability Management and SIPmath cure the Flaw of Averages and fix the bad math that produces misleading estimates and projections. is a non-profit organization established to educate, communicate and promulgate these disciplines and techniques.

Probability Management for Projects is a better way to plan and estimate. It's not a product. The only product you need is one you already have – Excel.

Have you had your fill of crunch mode? Consider giving me a call. I can help you clarify your objective, negotiate unambiguous requirements, and develop a plan to achieve the objective. We'll manage the uncertainty and fix the math so that your projects have the time, resources, and odds to succeed.

You can start managing your odds of success today. Let's talk.